STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
And now let's turn to a frequent guest of the program, historian and Russia expert Sergey Radchenko of Johns Hopkins University. Welcome back, sir.
SERGEY RADCHENKO: Good morning.
INSKEEP: I want to begin with the premise of the interview we just heard, that Ukraine is, quote, "faced with losing the United States as a crucial ally." In talking with some Republican supporters of former President Trump - President-elect Trump, I guess we should say - in Congress, they will sometimes make the opposite argument and say, yeah, he wants to bring peace to Russia and Ukraine, but he will do it by pressuring Russia. Is there any evidence to support that viewpoint of what's going on here?
RADCHENKO: Well, so far, we haven't had any evidence that would suggest that Trump is going to pressure Russia and how. I mean, if he wanted to do that, perhaps he could provide more military aid to Ukraine, and that would be a great starting point. I'm sure Zelenskyy would be looking forward to that. But what we heard from Trump so far is that he wants to strike a deal. And that's something I think that Putin also wants, but Putin will make his demands. He wants sanctions relief. He wants recognition of the territories that he had annexed in the course of this war in Ukraine. And he wants guarantees of NATO's nonenlargement (ph) into Ukraine. Now, that last bit is probably the easiest to secure from the United States, which I don't see actually welcoming Ukraine into NATO. That's been a sticking point. But those other things - you know, that's hard. That's hard, and we'll have to see whether Trump will agree to that. But Putin - I'm sure, Putin is very thrilled, excited by this.
INSKEEP: How do you understand Trump's attitude toward NATO? He criticized NATO allies, as did his predecessor, President Obama, for not spending enough on defense, but has done it in a certain way that's made people feel that he wants to get out of NATO.
RADCHENKO: Well, he has, and, you know, in some ways, actually, his criticism has been useful for NATO, because we have had a situation where NATO allies are not spending or were not spending even 2% of their GDP on defense. But what has happened over the last, well, some years, and now especially since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, is that NATO member states have generally been meeting the 2% target and, in some cases, especially in Eastern Europe, have been exceeding it. So that actually - this critical attitude by Trump has actually helped force the Eastern Europeans come around to understanding that they're responsible - and not just Eastern European, but all of Europeans are responsible for their security, much more so than they thought they were in the past. And I think if that pressure continues, I think maybe the Europeans will finally come around to recognize that they need to spend much more on defense.
INSKEEP: Is there a real risk that Europeans might end up on their own with the United States just decoupling?
RADCHENKO: I think there is risk of that, but, of course, we - you know, we saw that discussion earlier during the first Trump presidency, and ultimately Trump never pulled out of NATO, although a lot of predictions were to the effect that he would. Probably - you know, obviously, we'll have to see what happens...
INSKEEP: Yeah.
RADCHENKO: ...This time, but I think there's going to be a lot more pressure on the Europeans to come around and invest much more into their defense. I think that's the right thing to do, especially given the challenges that the United States is facing in Asia, specifically China in particular.
INSKEEP: Got about 20 seconds - I want to ask about one other thing. In the middle of Election Day, there were bomb threats in multiple places at polling places, and the FBI blamed Russia for some of them. In about 15 seconds, what do you make of that?
RADCHENKO: I think that there's no (ph) - clear that Russia is out to create chaos, not least in the U.S. electoral process, so I'm not surprised by those allegations on the part of the FBI.
INSKEEP: Sergey Radchenko at Johns Hopkins University, thanks so much for your insights as always.
RADCHENKO: Thank you for having me.
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