According to recent polls, Texans are for the most part no great fans of President Donald Trump. But, as the online statistics blog fivethirtyeight.com notes, Trump’s abysmal polling numbers in the Lone Star State don’t necessarily signal a Democratic wave in Texas’s upcoming November elections.
According to the most recent Gallup poll, Trump only holds a 39 percent approval rating in Texas—that’s lower than in traditional swing states like Arizona and Nevada. Meanwhile, a hefty 54 percent of respondents said they disapprove of Trump’s presidency. But these numbers aren’t cause for as much alarm in the White House as it would appear.
That’s Because Gallup polled the entire adult population, rather than likely voters. And in Texas, likely voters tend to vote far more heavily Republican than the electorate at large.