STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
Retired Rear Admiral John Kirby has been listening with us. He was press secretary at the Pentagon and State Department and White House in the Biden administration and is now director of the University of Chicago Institute of Politics. Admiral Kirby, welcome back.
JOHN KIRBY: Thank you very much. Good to be with you, Steve.
INSKEEP: I just want to begin by saying I'm following these latest strikes, and I do not understand yet the U.S. strategy. And by that, I mean, what is the longer-term U.S. objective, and how do its current actions support that objective? Do you feel you understand the strategy?
KIRBY: My strong feeling is that there's two aspects here. One is they had to act to prevent Iran from mining the strait. They saw evidence that they were going to use rockets to launch mines into the strait. They had to act to prevent that. That, of course, set off retaliation by the Iranians. I don't think that President Trump wants to escalate here, but he also wants to send a strong signal to Iran that if they continue these harassing maneuvers, that he's going to answer in kind. So my strong suspicion is that he is trying to escalate to deescalate. The problem with Iran is that that doesn't work with them, particularly with the IRGC, who are hard-liners.
INSKEEP: Well, let's talk about that because this can begin to feel like a permanent state of war between the U.S. and Iran. The U.S. used to have this pretty much permanent cold war with Iran, and now it seems that we're more like Israel and that we're more or less always at war with Iran. Is that how you see it?
KIRBY: That's the fear. That's my worry, is that we are now in some sort of a new normal, Steve, where there'll be these tit-for-tat strikes back and forth and no real effort to get back to the table. I did find it encouraging that the Iranian president mentioned he would be willing to get back to the table, but the problem is, he doesn't have the literal or figurative finger on the trigger of the drones and the missiles and the mines. That's the IRGC. And they have very little interest in getting back to the table.
INSKEEP: Do you worry that there might be multiple centers of power in Iran and that nobody can really bring the country to the table?
KIRBY: Absolutely. I 100% believe that. This is a fractured government, and the people that Mr. Kushner and Mr. Witkoff and the Omanis are speaking to, the elected leadership of Iran, they don't have the same strategic outcomes in mind that the IRGC and the mullahs have in mind. And quite frankly, everything I've seen is that the mullahs and the IRGC have more purchase with the new supreme leader than do the elected leadership.
INSKEEP: Meaning that the hard-liners, as we call them, the people who are more strongly against the United States, seem to have more power.
KIRBY: That is correct.
INSKEEP: Can you give a sailor's perspective on what seems to be happening in the Strait of Hormuz? We just heard from Hadeel Al-Shalchi there. It's only 20 miles across.
KIRBY: That's right.
INSKEEP: Seems like Iran can block it. In fact, they did at one point. And yet we're also told that ships with millions of barrels of oil are slipping past, apparently without being seen by the Iranians, even as the Iranians seem to be trying to mine the strait. Do you feel you understand what's happening and the mechanics of it all?
KIRBY: I do. So there is a southern route along the coast of Oman that the United States Navy is helping shepherd ships along. Now, they do this as clandestinely as possible, mostly at night, quietly, without a lot of lights or fanfare, certainly no actual escorts by U.S. Navy vessels. But the U.S. Navy has overwatch. They're watching from the sky. They're monitoring what's going on in Iran to keep those ships on a safe, southerly track. So that's how these ships are getting out.
Now, to be fair, not every ship is taking the Navy up on this offer, and some ships have been able to get through on their own. But that's really the venue through which ships are getting out, and quite frankly, some are getting back in.
INSKEEP: Do the Iranians just not have the radar or other surveillance systems to see those ships as long as they stay on the far side of the strait?
KIRBY: The Iranians are greatly limited into what they can do to prevent that traffic because of the strikes that the United States military has continued to conduct in Iran. In fact, just recently, CENTCOM just announced that some of the sites they hit over the last 24, 36 hours were radar sites. So it is very difficult. I should - it's difficult, not completely impossible, but very difficult for the Iranians to suspect - to see this traffic and then take action.
INSKEEP: That does make me wonder - in a few seconds - if it is possible that the U.S. at some point could make Iran irrelevant to the Strait of Hormuz, to degrade their capabilities to the point where ships can just pass.
KIRBY: I don't think that we're anywhere near that right now, Steve. I think the Iranians still have capability. And remember, Steve, it doesn't take an actual weapon or a strike. It just takes fear.
INSKEEP: Yeah.
KIRBY: Fear alone can help shipping companies avoid the strait.
INSKEEP: Retired Rear Admiral John Kirby. Pleasure talking with you. Thank you so much.
KIRBY: Thank you, Steve. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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