Initially delayed by the war with Iran, President Trump leaves for a state visit to China on Tuesday.
But the war is not in the rear view mirror as he had hoped. The ceasefire with Iran is "on massive life support," as Trump put it Monday and the conflict is in an unsteady and uncertain holding pattern.
"It is remarkable that President Trump is prepared to go to China under these circumstances," said Kurt Campbell, chairman of The Asia Group and a top Biden administration adviser on China. "But may I also say that it's also deeply unusual that China is prepared to host him."
China and Iran are close allies and trading partners, and the U.S. has just spent weeks bombing Iran and is now blockading all ships connected to Iran. Meanwhile, there are questions about whether China has assisted Iran. And yet, the state visit is moving ahead as planned.
"It suggests that both believe they have interests in meeting," said Campbell. "And I think part of that is a desire to keep a relationship that is fraught and challenging with a degree at least of equilibrium."
A senior U.S. official not authorized to speak publicly said a better question would be "why would [Trump] not continue" with this trip and all the other duties that he has as president.
Grand ceremonies and grand gestures are on the agenda along with trade talks and the possibility of creating a "U.S.-China Board of Trade" to manage what has been a challenging relationship between the two countries. They may also discuss AI technology, the official said, at least to establish "some channels of deconfliction."
When President Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping last fall in South Korea, the two leaders turned down the temperature on what had been an escalating trade war.
"From zero to 10 with 10 being the best, I would say the meeting was a 12," Trump said on Air Force One after the meeting, where plans were made for this state visit.
"I said but 'we have to put on the biggest display you've ever had in the history of China,'" Trump said at a meeting of world leaders in Washington earlier this year. He was building hype for this visit. "You know the last time I went to China, President Xi, he treated me so well."
Trump's schedule includes a welcome ceremony, two bilateral meetings with Xi, a state banquet, a tour of the Temple of Heaven and a tea in a whirlwind less than 48 hours on the ground.
More than a dozen big name U.S. corporate executives, including Apple's Tim Cook and Tesla's Elon Musk, are traveling as part of the delegation.
"The American people can expect the president to deliver more good deals on behalf of our country," said Anna Kelly, the White House deputy press secretary, on a call previewing the trip. "These agreements will further rebalance trade with China while putting American workers, farmers and families first and safeguarding U.S. economic strength and national security."
Iran war's influence
When this visit was put on the books last fall, the focus was on keeping the trade truce between the two countries going. And that is still on the agenda, but now there's this pressing new global challenge.
"I do think that this war will dominate the summit," said Lyle Goldstein, director of the China Initiative at Brown University. "Let's face it, it will push a lot of other things off the agenda. I mean, if for no other reason … Trump is focused on it because he wants it off his desk as it were."
Iran's foreign minister recently went to China and met with his counterpart there. And China is credited with helping to push Iran to accept the initial ceasefire, the one Trump said is now on life support. Lyle says he could imagine Trump asking Xi to help pressure Iran to re-open the Strait of Hormuz and make a deal to end the war.
This inevitably changes the dynamic between Trump and Xi headed into this high stakes visit.
"The war in Iran has given President Xi sources of leverage that he would not have anticipated having at the beginning of this year," said Ali Wyne with the International Crisis Group.
For instance, he said the U.S. will need rare earth minerals from China to rebuild its supply of missile interceptors depleted by the war.
To hear Trump tell it, the war with Iran hasn't affected his friendly relationship with Xi. And when there have been questions about China possibly assisting Iran in the war, Trump has downplayed those concerns.
"He's somebody I get along with very well. Just wrote me a beautiful letter," Trump told Fox Business anchor Maria Bartiromo in a recent interview.
Trump said he had prompted the correspondence with his own letter to Xi asking him not to supply weapons to Iran after there had been reports of China doing just that.
"And he wrote me a letter saying that essentially, he's not doing that," Trump said.
Although China is a major customer of oil from Iran, it has been somewhat insulated from the economic shock from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Potential deals
While other presidents scolded Xi about human rights and warned him to leave Taiwan alone, Trump has long expressed an admiration for Xi and the power he wields within China.
"It's not just hyperbole but the president is his own China officer," said Dennis Wilder,a professor at Georgetown University who was a top adviser to President George W. Bush on China policy. "And he believes he understands Xi Jinping, he believes he can negotiate good deals with China."
There are widespread expectations that China will announce plans to purchase additional soybeans and other farm goods as well as Boeing airplanes. There's also talk of a process to formalize the trade truce between the two nations.
But Melanie Hart, the senior director of the Global China Hub at the Atlantic Council says there are still meetings happening this week to lay the groundwork for Trump's trip.
"Everything is still in flux, at this point, normally at least the economic deliverables would be nailed in. That is not the case," she said. "So this is going to be evolving up until the last minute."
The White House has said a U.S.-China Board of Trade, even if agreed to, couldn't be finalized immediately. It would require both countries to do more work to establish such a body.
And Wilder points out, this is just the first of four potential meetings between Trump and Xi this year, including a planned state visit for Xi to the U.S. in the fall.
"What we're seeing here is the setup for a year of intense dialogue to try and reset to a certain degree, the U.S.-China relationship," said Wilder.
That relationship is now vastly different than it was when Trump first visited China as president nearly a decade ago. Back then, the International Crisis Group's Wyne said China put on a big display to convince Trump and the U.S. that it should be seen as America's confident and capable competitor.
"This time around in the run up to the meeting between President Trump and President Xi, the Chinese side doesn't have to make that case because U.S. officials are making that case themselves, beginning with President Trump," said Wyne.
The White House national security strategy document, released late last year, describes China as a "near peer," while the two nations remain locked in a long-term competition for global dominance.
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