Texas' population has been increasing for years, but the state's top demographer said without immigration the state could look at a decrease instead.
Lloyd Potter is the Texas State Demographer and director of the Texas Demographic Center. Speaking at an annual conference in Dallas last week, he said international migration has made up an increasing percentage of the state's population growth in recent years.
It accounted for a quarter of Texas' new residents between 2021 and 2022, and nearly 57% from 2023 to 2024. The same year, about 28% of the population growth was driven by a natural increase.
"Our population will start declining if we don't [have] immigration," he said.
Potter didn't allude to politics, but the presentation comes as the Trump administration has taken a hard aim at curbing immigration, including illegal crossings at the border and asylum cases.
He has rolled back Temporary Protected Status for some migrants from countries like Haiti and Venezuela. His administration has also attempted to revoke visas from thousands of foreign students.
Without a growing population base of children aging into the labor force nationwide, Potter said, then either the economy is going to shrink, or the country will have to import labor.
"You might see some economic contraction as a function of that and ... at the national level if we don't have immigrants coming in or we don't increase birth rates," he said.
A survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found Texas firms are increasingly reliant on immigrant workers. About a quarter reported "some" or "significant" reliance in February, up from 15% a year before.
"That's consistent with the inflow that we've seen especially across the border," Orrenius said.
International migration into Texas increased in 2024, while domestic migration dropped, but Orrenius says that could change this year.
"It's gonna be really bear watching," she said.
Olla Mokhtar is KERA's news intern. Got a tip? Email Olla at omokhtar@kera.org.
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