At least one San Antonio area Democratic congressional delegation could be flipped in next year's 2026 midterm elections if Gov. Greg Abbott and President Donald Trump get their way.
Abbott recently added off-cycle congressional redistricting to the Texas legislature's upcoming special session that is also supposed to deal with flood relief, THC regulation, standardized K-12 testing, and more.
The move came after Trump told congressional Republicans that he wanted to net five new seats in the U.S. House of Representatives from Texas' congressional delegation in an effort to maintain control of the House. The party in power — in this case the Republicans — is typically expected to lose seats in Congress during midterm elections. That could derail Trump's legislative agenda in the second half of his term and potentially lead to his third impeachment.
The House currently has 220 Republicans and 212 Democrats. Three seats, formerly held by Democrats, are vacant following member deaths, including former U.S. Rep. Sylvester Turner's Houston seat that Abbott has left vacant.
Jon Taylor, the chair of the Department of Political Science and Geography at the University of Texas at San Antonio, said the proposed redistricting is not unheard of but it would be a very unusual move just a few years after the U.S. Census-mandated redistricting.
"It's pretty uncommon," he explained. "We've done it more than once in this state. There are a couple other states, Colorado, Pennsylvania ... but in general, you don't do this."
San Antonio has a five-member delegation to the House. Three of those members — congressmembers Henry Cuellar in the 28th Congressional District (CD), Greg Casar in CD 35, and Joaquin Castro in CD 20 are Democrats. The other two congressmembers — Chip Roy in CD 21 and Tony Gonzales in CD 23 — are Republicans.
Taylor said the most likely San Antonio area target for Republicans is Cuellar. "You may see an attempt to try to move particular Democrats out of that district to improve Republican chances," he said.
Cuellar's district has become a major target for Texas Republicans in recent years. Cuellar has managed to hang onto the district as one of the most conservative Democrats in the House. In 2024, he received the support of many of the same voters who backed Trump.
Cuellar has also been indicted over federal bribery charges. He has denied any wrongdoing.
Taylor said it was unlikely that Castro's district would be a focus of Republicans, but that it's possible Casar's district — stretching from Austin down IH-35 to San Antonio — could be where Republicans try to pack Democrats they move from Cuellar's district.
Cuellar's office did not respond to TPR's request for comment.
Texas may also seek to redraw congressional districts in Houston and Fort Worth that the U.S. Department of Justice recently said were likely unconstitutional racial gerrymanders in favor of racial minorities.
Taylor said Republicans' efforts to flip seats can be risky, both in the short- and long-term.
"It is possible that they can redraw and gerrymander districts, try to create a greater advantage, and then end up losing those districts and potentially some other districts in what might be a wave election [for Democrats] next year," Taylor said, referring to what is sometimes called a "dummy-mander."
This could happen if Republicans move too many of their voters out of currently Republican districts into Democratic-controlled districts, or if they move too many Democratic voters out of currently Democratic districts into Republican ones, weakening incumbents.
In the long-term, Taylor said watering down Republican districts in order to create more of them could lock Republicans into a weaker position years down the line as Texas becomes more purple.
Democrats in the state legislature could also attempt to break quorum, as they briefly did in 2021 to prevent the regular round of redistricting that took place after the 2020 Census, though Taylor said new state laws now threaten fines or expulsion from the state legislature for such actions.
But even if Texas Republicans do succeed in drawing new maps that favor them in the upcoming midterms, that's no guarantee they'll ensure Republicans hold onto the House.
"[Gov.] Gavin Newsom has already threatened in California to basically try to have the state assembly there to change state law … and then basically offsetting whatever Texas attempts to do," Taylor said.
Lawsuits and the federal courts may also become a barrier to getting the maps implemented in time for next March's primary elections, which have filing deadlines in December.
Win or lose for Republicans, Taylor said things are going to get nasty when the Texas legislature's special session begins on Monday.
"If this goes through, if they are really going to push this, it's going to be a donnybrook, for want of a better term. It's going to be in your face, bare knuckles politics in Austin starting next week."
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