From higher grocery bills to fewer health care options, millions of everyday Texans could soon feel the ripple effects of President Donald Trump's sweeping tax and spending proposal — known as the "Big, Beautiful Bill."
Both John Cornyn and Ted Cruz, the state's two Republican U.S. Senators, supported the bill as it narrowly cleared the U.S. Senate on Tuesday. It's now being fast-tracked through Congress.
"This bill will do wonderful things for the 31 million people in my state," Cornyn said.
The bill offers deep tax breaks for the wealthy while shifting significant costs onto states. For Texas, that could mean billions in new costs — or deep cuts to safety-net programs.
"At the end of the day, what the bill wants to do is to push a lot of the cost onto state governments," said Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston. "Texas is going to have to choose whether it wants to be as generous or less generous than it has been."
Food aid on the chopping block
Among the most significant impacts of the bill for Texas families would be cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP. The federal food assistance program helps low-income households buy groceries. Texans received more than $7 billion in SNAP benefits in fiscal year 2024, according to the nonprofit Feeding Texas, an association of statewide food banks.
Historically funded by the federal government, SNAP could become a financial burden for Texas. The bill would require states with high payment error rates to cover a share of food assistance costs. Because Texas must balance its budget each year, lawmakers would need to raise taxes, cut other programs or reduce SNAP benefits statewide to absorb the potential cost.
"That, combined with the tightened eligibility rules, could potentially create a problem for people who are food insecure in Texas," Rottinghaus said.
The bill also expands work requirements for SNAP recipients, raising the age limit for "able-bodied adults" from 52 to 64 and narrowing how states can waive those rules. Parents with children under 14 would be exempt.
With stricter eligibility rules and a lack of guaranteed funding, about 32,000 Texans could be pushed into poverty, according to the Urban Institute. These changes would take effect in 2028, if the bill is passed.
Medicaid faces deep cuts in federal funding
The proposal also targets Medicaid, the joint federal-state health insurance program that covers low-income children, pregnant women, people with disabilities and many elderly Texans. As of November 2024, more than 4 million Texans were enrolled, according to the latest state data.
Under the bill, federal Medicaid funding would drop sharply, with tighter eligibility rules and new work requirements aimed at cutting "waste, fraud, and abuse," according to the Trump administration. Recipients would need to work 80 hours a month until age 65 to qualify, with exemptions for parents of children under 14 and people with disabilities.
The Congressional Budget Office's latest cost estimate shows the bill would cut federal Medicaid spending by $1 trillion and leave nearly 12 million more people uninsured nationwide by 2034. An analysis by KFF projects Texas could lose up to $50 billion.
Rural hospitals face the greatest risk, according to Rottinghaus. Many operate on thin margins and depend heavily on Medicaid reimbursements. And many are already struggling to survive: A 2022 Kaufman Hall report found 26% of rural hospitals in Texas were at risk of closure, compared to 16% in 2020.
"The fact that the state is really struggling in rural areas to provide healthcare means that any kind of dramatic cuts to Medicaid could create some problems in staffing those institutions and delivering care," he said.
The U.S. House of Representatives passed an earlier version of the bill in May, but changes made by the Senate now require House approval. Lawmakers are racing to finalize the deal before their self-imposed July 4 deadline, aiming to send it to Trump's desk for final approval.
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